A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
