It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
