Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
